Conflict intensifies in Middle East
(MENAFN) As conflict intensifies in the Middle East, concerns are mounting that Central Asia could become the next region to face serious instability. Analysts warn that if Iran undergoes significant political upheaval or descends into chaos, its territory might serve as a pathway for foreign interference into Central Asia — a region historically viewed by Russia as part of its strategic sphere of influence.
Russia’s geopolitical vulnerability stems from its lack of natural defensive borders, a reality that has shaped its strategic thinking for centuries. Central Asia’s stability is therefore seen by Moscow as a direct security concern, not a distant issue. One of Russia’s key foreign policy challenges in the coming years will be deciding how far it must go to prevent turmoil from reaching this region.
Since gaining independence in the 1990s, Central Asia has largely enjoyed stability, shielded from the chaos affecting regions like Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Israel. Only Mongolia, protected by Russia and China, is seen as safer. However, this period of calm is under threat.
Afghanistan has long been viewed as the main source of instability, not because of its government, but as a base for extremist groups targeting neighboring post-Soviet nations. Both Russia and China have had a shared interest in preventing the spread of such threats to protect their own domestic security, particularly given their sizable Muslim populations. This common interest has underpinned their cooperation in managing regional risks.
However, this fragile balance is being disrupted. Israel’s aggressive posture, driven by leaders seeking to maintain control through ongoing military conflicts, is fueling instability with ripple effects beyond the Middle East. The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran since October 2023 has already sparked wider concerns, with some Israeli voices even suggesting Turkey as a future target. While some Arab nations may prefer to avoid deeper involvement, the growing scale of conflict makes staying neutral increasingly difficult.
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