AGP Executive Report

Energy Policy: India has rolled back most emergency natural gas supply curbs imposed during the West Asia crisis after LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following a ceasefire, shifting sales back to a government priority customer list and ending earlier restrictions on diesel and LPG production. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s leadership held a second day of funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with attention on the absence of his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei and crowds chanting revenge as the region watches US-Iran de-escalation efforts. Security & Aid: UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon marked a minute’s silence after colleagues were killed, underscoring the risks facing UN operations amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Economic Signals: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector activity rose in June to a four-month high on domestic demand, even as export orders fell amid ongoing regional logistics and inflation pressures. Governance & Trade: Pakistan and Türkiye pushed a $5bn trade target and sought Turkish investment in energy, mining, IT, manufacturing, logistics, tourism and defence as both governments framed economic diplomacy as key to regional stability. Humanitarian Impact: In Gaza, a stadium-turned shelter in Khan Younis shows how the World Cup’s return to stadiums elsewhere contrasts with displacement and destroyed livelihoods in the Strip.

U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Pressure: Egypt urged Washington and Tehran to keep momentum on their US-Iran memorandum, warning that diplomacy is the best route to preserve regional stability as nuclear talks remain paused. Turkey-NATO Calculus: In Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of trying to “dynamite” the US-Iran deal and said lasting peace needs regional buy-in, while also pushing deeper Turkey-Pakistan cooperation across energy, transport, critical minerals, IT and defense. Regional Security Talks: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun urged the US to “keep standing” by Lebanon after a US-backed framework deal with Israel that calls for Hezbollah disarmament, phased Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese army deployment—though Hezbollah rejected the plan. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran began six days of state funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, with Hezbollah and Hamas delegations attending and officials meeting Iran’s foreign minister amid chants of “death to America” and “revenge,” as Hormuz tensions and diplomacy continue. Humanitarian Coordination: Bahrain’s Red Crescent joined a Jordan-hosted workshop with 12 national societies to strengthen Red Cross/Red Crescent support for government-led immunization programs. Energy & Cost Fallout: UK energy suppliers warned households face higher bills until 2027, while India lifted emergency natural gas allocation curbs after LNG disruptions eased.

Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran began days-long state funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with authorities projecting 15–20 million mourners and tight security; attention is on whether his successor son Mojtaba Khamenei will appear, as chants of vengeance and foreign delegations underscore a bid to project unity amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Lebanon Conflict Management: Talks on cementing a southern Lebanon ceasefire and future governance are raising fears of a repeat of the 2006 postwar model, with calls for Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and safe returns for displaced people. Middle East Crisis Spillover: Togo’s president urged African states to strengthen resilience and early warning as the Middle East crisis drives higher energy prices, shipping costs, and security risks, pushing for energy diversification and logistics upgrades. Fuel Price Policy: The Philippines’ DOE is set to finalize next week’s diesel/gasoline adjustments amid volatile Middle East outflows, while Abu Dhabi’s health ministry announced new agreements to expand intelligent life sciences via genomics, AI, and research. Government & Services: India’s parliament monsoon session is scheduled July 20–Aug 13, and the UK services sector posted its sharpest slump in 3.5 years as Middle East conflict pressures costs and dampens confidence. Logistics Investment: DP World opened Egypt’s first integrated Logistics Distribution Centre at Sokhna, aiming to streamline port, warehousing, customs, and distribution for regional and global firms. NGO/Nonprofit Funding: The UK axed a flagship higher-education programme for women and girls (SHEFE), withdrawing a £45m tender after two years.

US-Iran Mediation Tension: The NYT reports Washington feared Israel might assassinate Iran’s top ceasefire negotiators, warning Tehran through intermediaries—raising doubts about whether talks can survive amid mutual distrust. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran has begun a week of mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with millions expected and foreign delegations arriving; NBC also reports his successor Mojtaba Khamenei is unlikely to attend. Pakistan Economic Watch: SBP chief Jameel Ahmad said FY26 growth could land above the government’s 3.7% estimate (around 3.75–4.75%), with FX reserves rising and remittances projected above $41.5bn. Trade Pressure on Exports: Pakistan’s commerce ministry warned exports will keep suffering if incentives favor domestic industries over export sectors, citing Middle East route disruptions and higher logistics costs. Fuel Price Relief (Caribbean): Dominican authorities cut gasoline and diesel for July 4–10 via a subsidy, while aviation fuel rises. NGO Legal Fight (US): CAIR sued Florida over a “domestic terrorist” designation that could cripple operations. Energy Budget Risk (Africa): Falling oil prices are squeezing exporter budgets, with Nigeria highlighted for heavy crude-linked revenue dependence.

Iran Funeral & Regional Diplomacy: Iran has begun week-long public mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Tehran expecting massive turnout and tight security as the state tries to project continuity amid economic strain and leadership transition. Energy & Shipping Security: Iran’s military command warned oil tankers to use approved Strait of Hormuz routes or face forceful response, as mediators meet in Qatar and Gulf navigation remains a key pressure point. NATO Summit in Ankara: NATO leaders meet July 7-8 with unity and keeping U.S. commitment to Article 5 front and center, while officials also worry the Middle East conflict could crowd out alliance priorities. Gulf Labor Rights: Kenya’s PM Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi begins talks in Saudi Arabia focused on stronger protections for Kenyan migrant workers, including ethical recruitment and dispute resolution. Fuel Tax Relief: Zambia extended petrol and diesel excise duty suspension and VAT zero-rating for 90 days to cushion households from Middle East-driven price pressure. Pakistan Economy Watch: Pakistan’s central bank chief projected FY26 growth above the government’s estimate, citing resilient remittances and FX reserves despite the regional crisis. Libya Energy Push: Libya reported record crude output and renewed licensing to attract foreign investment, while U.S. officials press for unified institutions. Tech & Infrastructure: A Vancouver startup Wafr says it raised $100m to cut AI data-centre water use via hyper-efficient cooling, and the UAE hosted DCIIS UAE 2026 to advance resilient, AI-ready data centre ecosystems.

US–Iran Talks Security: The New York Times reports US officials feared Israel could target senior Iranian negotiators, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during ceasefire talks—prompting warnings to regional partners. Gaza Postwar Planning: The Media Line says Gaza’s “postwar architecture” exists on paper, with Hamas-free “temporary communities” and a technocratic administration still blocked by on-the-ground political and security constraints. Lebanon Ceasefire Tensions: Reporting on a US-brokered Lebanon framework notes Israeli troop plans and a buffer zone while Hezbollah warns it could trigger renewed internal conflict. Government Finance: The Philippines Bureau of the Treasury says outstanding debt rose to P18.55T in May as domestic borrowing increased amid the Middle East conflict. Energy Security Policy: The Philippines is considering a government oil reserve storage project (about one million barrels) with a possible timeline into late 2027/early 2028 to blunt fuel shock impacts. Public Services & Wages: Metro Manila’s minimum wage is set to rise by P85/day, with lawmakers pushing for wider coverage beyond the NCR.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya command warned oil tankers to use approved Hormuz routes or face a “forceful response,” escalating risks around the waterway as US-Iran talks continue via Qatar. US-Iran Diplomacy Under Strain: Separate US and Iranian meetings in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, produced “positive progress” but left major disputes over Hormuz and Lebanon unresolved, with the next talks set after Iran’s Khamenei funeral. Lebanon-Syria Realignment: Syria’s foreign minister told Lebanese leaders he is open to meeting Hezbollah “if interests require it,” after Trump raised the possibility of Syrian action against the Iran-backed group. Iraq Port Procurement: Iraq will invite bids for remaining piers at the Grand Faw Port after Daewoo E&C completed five main jetties, aiming to finish smaller berths later this year. Energy Security Planning: Philippines’ Energy Secretary said a government-backed oil reserve storage could be built within the current administration, targeting completion by late 2027 or early 2028. Food Logistics Support: Oman’s Asyad Shipping will receive government support covering 50% of fuel and insurance costs for eligible food cargoes on the India-Oman route for up to six months. Fuel Price Pass-Through Delays: Kenya’s EPRA said pump prices may lag global oil moves by 30–45 days, citing refining and logistics timelines. UAE CSR Push: Mansour bin Zayed launched the UAE Companies for Good 2031 strategy and recognized Impact Seal winners, aiming to strengthen the third sector and sustainability ecosystem.

Iraq Anti-Corruption Push: Iraqi security forces carried out overnight Green Zone raids, arresting politicians and senior officials in a high-profile test of PM Ali Al-Zaidi’s new government and its fight against entrenched corruption networks. US-Iran Talks, Strait of Hormuz: Senior US officials will hold technical talks in Doha rather than high-level meetings with Iran, as uncertainty persists over the interim framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US Embassy in Jerusalem: The US signed an agreement to build a permanent embassy compound in Jerusalem, formalizing a major shift in long-running diplomatic policy. Lebanon-Israel Diplomacy: A US-backed trilateral framework with Lebanon and Israel signals a more traditional, detailed diplomatic approach, even as obstacles to “lasting peace” remain. UK Settlement Goods Ban Review: Britain is weighing coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, while warning that implementation and allied coordination are complex. Gulf Sovereign Investing: Gulf sovereign wealth funds set a record first-half pace, deploying $53.9bn across 108 deals despite Iran-war volatility. Humanitarian Aid: Bulgaria approved €200,000 in humanitarian assistance for Lebanon and Gaza, routed through UN agencies and partners. Telecom in Syria: Zain won a 25-year licence to operate Syria’s mobile network, pledging major investment including 5G rollout. Fuel Price Relief in Namibia: Namibia plans fuel cuts from July 3, citing easing Middle East tensions, improved Hormuz flows, and lower shipping costs. Pakistan Cybersecurity Warning: Pakistan reported 253 cyberattacks in 2026 so far, with officials urging organizations to meet new compliance deadlines as threats rise. Energy Bills and Food Costs: Multiple governments adjusted fuel levies and pricing, while food-price controls (including rice cap extensions) reflect ongoing cost-of-living pressure tied to regional instability.

World Bank Financing for Jobs in Jordan: The World Bank approved a $700 million loan for Jordan’s Growth and Competitiveness DPF-II to unlock private investment, expand access to finance (including for women entrepreneurs), create jobs, and speed up the country’s green and digital transition. Kuwait Defense Posture After Iran Attacks: Kuwait’s Cabinet condemned renewed Iranian military aggressions, ordered peak operational readiness, and froze unapproved state consulting contracts while stressing sovereignty and GCC-linked security solidarity with Bahrain. Iraq Energy and Development Fund: Iraq’s PM said the Central Bank-backed Energy and Development Fund will open to regional and international investors, inviting Gulf states and Western funds, alongside calls to adjust OPEC crude quotas to better reflect Iraq’s population and ISIS-era costs. US-Iran Indirect Talks in Doha: US and Iranian officials will hold indirect technical talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators on a memorandum aimed at ending the Middle East war, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumes. Energy Costs and Public Guidance: In the UK, Ofgem’s price cap rises 13% from July 1, and households are urged to submit meter readings to avoid higher bills; in India, commercial LPG cylinder prices fall from July 1 while domestic rates stay unchanged. Regional Economic Pressure Signals: Pakistan’s June inflation hit 11.1% YoY, while Malta’s fiscal advisory council warned the Middle East conflict could still drive higher energy/food prices and imported inflation.

Minimum Wage Pressure in NCR: Philippine labor groups say the government’s “historic” P85-per-day Metro Manila minimum wage hike is still too small, arguing inflation and Middle East-linked oil costs have crushed purchasing power; the increase comes in two tranches—P60 from July 19 and P25 from Jan. 20—raising non-agricultural wages to P780 and agricultural to P743, while critics warn workers can’t pay utilities, fares, or groceries in installments. Tourism Fuel Data for Aid: Malaysia’s tourism ministry urged tour bus operators to submit diesel-usage and before/after fuel-cost data so the finance ministry can design targeted assistance and tax incentives tied to the diesel price rise. Syria Telecom License: Kuwait-based Zain won a 25-year license to run Syria’s mobile network, paying $747 million and planning a Q1 2027 commercial launch after a six-month transition for MTN’s 6.3 million customers. Gold as a Policy Hedge: An OMFIF survey says central banks are doubling down on physical gold as geopolitical risk and sovereign-debt worries grow, with 82% holding bullion and many planning further purchases. Hormuz Reopen, UN Warns of Lasting Shock: The Strait of Hormuz has reopened after 100+ days of disruption, but UNCTAD warns inflation and supply-chain damage will linger for vulnerable economies. Iran Kurdish Violence: Reports of renewed clashes in Iran’s Kurdish-majority west raise questions about whether insurgency activity is intensifying as Iran-US diplomacy remains fragile. Regional Diplomacy via Qatar: Iran says no US meeting is planned in Doha in the next few days, framing talks around MoU implementation and restricted-asset releases.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: The US and Iran have agreed to pause physical military operations and return to talks in Doha, but Iran says no direct meetings are planned with Americans, underscoring how fragile the ceasefire remains amid continued disputes over Hormuz control. Maritime Safety for Workers: Filipino officials say all 40 seafarers on two ships attacked near Hormuz are safe, with damage reported but no injuries—highlighting ongoing risks to commercial shipping. Lebanon Ceasefire Strain: Israel demolished a major Hezbollah tunnel complex in southern Lebanon, with officials saying it was coordinated with the US, as tensions rise despite a framework aimed at ending months of fighting. Energy Pressure and Fuel Prices: Nigeria’s petroleum regulator warned marketers against profiteering after Middle East tensions eased, while the UK’s energy price cap outlook remains high into October and Trump again demanded US gas retailers cut prices. Regional Infrastructure & Tech: Qatar’s Es’hailSat signed partnerships with Türkiye’s Türksat and Thales Alenia Space for a next-gen high-throughput satellite to expand secure connectivity across MENA and beyond. Economic Policy Signals: Bangladesh Bank kept its policy rate at 10% to curb inflation, citing persistent price pressures linked to global conflicts including the Middle East.

UK Defence Funding: Sir Keir Starmer unveiled a long-delayed Defence Investment Plan due Tuesday, adding about £1bn after John Healey quit in protest, with the package now set to push drones and autonomous weapons and face scrutiny over whether it meets NATO spending targets. US-Iran Talks in Qatar: Trump says US and Iran will hold fresh talks in Doha Tuesday, but Tehran insists no US negotiations are scheduled and frames any engagement around implementing the June 17 MOU; weekend clashes have underscored how fragile the ceasefire remains. Lebanon-Israel Framework Under Fire: Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, rejected the US-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework, warning it could deepen division and arguing the only realistic path runs through the US-Iran track. Iraq Security & Anti-Corruption: Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm, while a separate crackdown has detained dozens of officials and sparked debate over political timing and credibility. Regional Diplomacy: Iraq and Syria agreed to a joint committee on energy, water, agriculture, transport and border coordination after Iraq’s first FM visit to Damascus since Assad’s fall. Counter-Terrorism Warning: UN chief António Guterres warned that wars, displacement and economic shocks are creating “fertile ground” for Al-Qaeda and ISIS expansion, urging root-cause action beyond military force. Energy Shock Support: Germany announced €250m in urgent aid for Africa and Asia to cushion Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving fuel and food price spikes.

Israel-Lebanon Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework in Washington on June 26, outlining pilot security zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces would take over and Israeli redeployment would follow verified steps against Hezbollah’s armed infrastructure—while Washington backs a coordination group, humanitarian support, and army assistance; the real test now is whether Lebanon can extend state authority in the south as Hezbollah rejects the deal. Iraq Power Push: Iraq’s cabinet is preparing contracts for 25,000 MW of new electricity generation capacity this year, with larger allocations planned under a programme-based budgeting approach for 2027. Kuwait Industrial Expansion: Kuwait’s Al-Na’ayem Industrial City reached 15% completion and is slated for handover in 2032 under a BOT model, aiming to deliver 1,800 industrial plots and clean-energy-led green manufacturing. Parliament Oversight in Malaysia: Malaysia’s Dewan Rakyat will debate how West Asia conflict affects foreign tourist arrivals and whether Langkawi security forces are ready to tackle smuggling and territorial intrusions, including possible drone use. Anti-Corruption in Iraq: Iraq’s security forces arrested 47 officials in a Baghdad Green Zone anti-graft crackdown, targeting corruption links tied to Iran-backed groups. Energy Market Pressure: Central Asia is seeing fuel-price spikes tied to wider geopolitical disruptions, with governments urging gradual increases and promising relief if global prices ease.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain: Pakistan urged all sides to stick to the US-Iran ceasefire after renewed tit-for-tat attacks, warning the fragile truce could unravel. Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Shipping chaos deepened as more South Korean-operated vessels exited the Strait of Hormuz, leaving only a handful still inside, while analysts flagged “new normal” risk for maritime traffic. Lebanon Framework Sparks Backlash: Lebanon and Israel signed a US-brokered security framework, but Hezbollah rejected it as “null and void,” and protesters in Beirut denounced the deal amid fears Israel won’t withdraw. Iraq Anti-Graft Crackdown: Iraq arrested 47 officials, including MPs, in raids across Baghdad’s Green Zone as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pushes corruption controls ahead of a planned Washington visit. Humanitarian & Tech Partnerships: In Kuwait, UNHCR and Zain marked World Refugee Day with a decade-long partnership supporting displaced communities across MENA via cash assistance. Energy Policy Pressure: Nepal’s government signaled fuel price cuts may come later despite lower global prices, citing procurement and due-process delays. Economy Outlook: A think tank warned the Philippines’ recovery could stay sluggish, with GDP growth forecast below the government’s targets as shocks from the Middle East conflict linger.

U.S.-Iran Escalation: The U.S. launched new strikes on Iranian targets after an attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, with CENTCOM citing continued drone attacks on commercial shipping; Iran and regional states traded accusations of ceasefire violations as Kuwait and Bahrain condemned the latest Iranian attacks. Israel-Lebanon Framework: Washington-backed Israel-Lebanon security talks advanced with a framework tied to Hezbollah disarmament and IDF withdrawal from pilot zones, but Hezbollah rejected the deal and warned of renewed instability. Regional Security Anxiety: Gulf states are pressing for stronger guarantees that any Iran-US understanding will curb Tehran’s regional influence, with analysts warning support for proxies could intensify. Iran Economic Strain: Iran’s inflation hit 88.6% year-on-year in June, driven by sharp food price spikes amid the war’s economic fallout. Trade & Diplomacy: China granted Egypt tariff-free access for all African nations with ties to Beijing, highlighting a persistent trade imbalance. GCC Tech Push: The UAE is deepening AI supply-chain cooperation with the U.S. through a Washington summit focused on secure, resilient deployment. Energy & Transport Policy: Japan and India discussed a joint LNG stockpiling task force amid Middle East supply risks; Abu Dhabi also moved toward commercial air taxis by late 2026/early 2027. Government Cost Relief: Several governments adjusted fuel/jet fuel pricing to ease airline and transport pressures linked to Middle East-linked volatility.

Israel-Lebanon framework: Netanyahu says Israel will send a delegation to Washington to press security concerns over any long-term US-Iran nuclear deal, while insisting Israel will keep a southern “security zone” until Hezbollah is disarmed; Hezbollah rejects it: Hezbollah calls the US-brokered agreement “null and void,” warning it legitimizes continued occupation and could trigger a fresh political crisis; US-Iran ceasefire strain: Iran accuses the US of violating the Middle East truce after strikes tied to alleged drone attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, as both sides trade fire and Gulf states worry about renewed escalation; Regional diplomacy: Jordan welcomes the framework and urges full Israeli withdrawal and UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation, while Egypt and Iran’s foreign ministers stress good-faith negotiations with Washington; Turkey-Kurd peace process: Erdogan says a legal framework for reforms tied to the PKK peace track will be submitted to parliament in mid-July, ahead of the NATO summit; Civil society & governance: The UN Economic Commission for Africa urges Southern African governments to accelerate regional integration and resilience planning as the Middle East crisis compounds shocks; Energy & markets: Goldman Sachs lifts India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran deal eases oil and supply-chain risks, and India restores LPG supply levels as Hormuz traffic improves.